Friday, 29 June 2018

Sterling rallies on UK GDP revision, Barnier's Brexit comments

LONDON (Reuters) - The pound rallied sharply on Friday after a better-than-expected revision to Britain’s first quarter economic growth raised expectations of monetary policy tightening later in the year.

Adding to the bounce, the European Union’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier said that EU leaders had made progress in Brexit talks though big differences remained.

The British economy grew 0.2 percent in the January to March quarter, against a preliminary number of 0.1 percent.

The data also showed Britain’s services sector gathered steam in April, raising hopes of a second-quarter pick-up after a sluggish start to 2018 that has stopped the Bank of England raising interest rates so far this year.

“You could argue that the fact the GDP number is stronger plays into the hand of the Bank of England hawks,” said Jane Foley, an analyst at Rabobank.

“That said, it still a weak figure. The room for celebration could be limited unless we get strong data for Q2.”

Market expectations for an August rate rise grew to 60 percent from an earlier 50 percent after Friday’s data release.

With momentum in Britain’s economy still fragile and uncertainty over Britain’s future relationship with the European Union, most traders remain cautious about the prospect of rate hikes and the pound.

The British economy performed relatively poorly in the first quarter after cold weather hit retail demand and the construction industry.

After a bruising week and month for sterling as worries about the lack of progress in Brexit talks and weakness in the British economy hit the currency, the pound rallied to $1.3170 on Friday, up 0.7 percent on the day.

Before the data it was trading at $1.3114, off the 7-1/2 month lows of $1.3050 hit earlier this week.

Against a euro buoyed by European Union leaders agreeing a deal on migration, the pound recovered its earlier losses and traded flat at 88.425 pence per euro.

British gilt futures fell 26 ticks to 122.74 after the data.

The state of Brexit talks should feature high on the agenda of EU leaders on the second day of a summit on Friday but expectations for progress towards an actual post-departure deal have been pushed back to October.

Reporting by Tommy Wilkes

No comments:

Post a Comment